After a wet summer what will our winter look like? Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan and NWS official weigh in

OKLAHOMA CITY – The seasons are changing – fall officially starts on Saturday and now the upcoming winter season is on everyone’s mind.

Viewers have asked us if our cool and wet summer is going to have any impact on what the coming months will be like and we investigated.

“It’s Oklahoma and we’ll be looking for the weather as it comes over the horizon but we are looking at winter as possibly being wetter than normal.”

Rick Smith with the National Weather Service in Norman knows Oklahoma’s weather is anything but consistent as the seasons and years pass.

“Well you can’t really connect the summer to the winter. Having a wet summer doesn’t really predict in any meaningful way what the winter is going to be like.”

Smith says although what’s happening in the summer may not be an indication of what the winter may be like – there is something happening right now that could be a slight indication.

“What does predict a little bit more is the fact that we’re going to have something called ‘El Niño’ developing over the Pacific Ocean.”

Smith says right now temperatures on the surface of the ocean are warmer than usual.
He says historically when we have this El Niño pattern means typically above normal precipitation but there’s not typically a strong signal as to whether the temperatures will be above or below normal, adding that our weather is caused by very small localized weather systems

“We’ll just have to see how the temperatures line up because that makes all the difference in our rain or snow or ice,” said Smith.

We also posed the question to the 4Warn Storm Team’s Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan.